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The Daily Letter

2020 Polling Fail: How Five Major Pollsters Missed Trump's Surge and What It Says About Polling Accuracy

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Simon Ateba
Oct 03, 2024
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How wrong were the polls in 2020? Polls in 2020 overestimated Biden's lead by as much as 12 points, consistently missing Trump's late-breaking support. Major pollsters like CNN, NBC, and Fox News all saw Biden ahead by wide margins—some as large as +10 to +12—but the actual results showed a much closer race, with Biden winning by just 4.5 points.

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