Harris Surges in Latest Polls: Where She Leads Trump and Where He Fights Back – A Comprehensive Breakdown from June to August

Plus my take at the end of this post.

Latest top polls - Where Harris leads and Where Trump leads, including the dates from June to August, plus my take.

A) Where Harris leads

2- Economist/YouGov Poll (Aug. 17-20):

Harris leads Trump 46% to 43%.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 3%.

Similar result to a previous week (Harris 46%-44%).

3- Morning Consult Poll (Aug. 16-18):

Harris leads Trump 48% to 44%.

Independents prefer Harris over Trump 42% to 38%.

Harris's approval rating at 50%.

Margin of error: 1 point.

4- Ipsos/ABC News/The Washington Post Poll (Released Aug. 20):

Harris leads Trump 49% to 45% among registered voters.

Harris leads 51% to 45% among likely voters.

5- CBS/YouGov Poll (Released Aug. 20):

Harris leads Trump 51% to 48% among likely voters.

Tied at 50% in battleground states.

6- Emerson College Poll (Released Aug. 15):

Harris leads Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters.

7- Monmouth University Poll (Released Aug. 14):

48% of registered voters would definitely or probably vote for Harris.

43% would definitely or probably vote for Trump.

8- Reuters/Ipsos Poll (Released Aug. 8):

Harris leads Trump 42% to 37%.

9- NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll (Released Aug. 6):

Harris leads Trump 48% to 45%.

B) Where Trump leads

1- Fox News Poll (Released Aug. 15):

10- Trump leads Harris 50% to 49% among registered voters.

11- Trump leads Harris by one point (48% to 47%) in a New York Times/Siena poll (July 22-24).

12- Trump leads Harris by two points (49% to 47%) in a Wall Street Journal poll (July 23-25).

13- Trump leads Harris by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbes poll (June 26) (When she was not yet the nominee).

14- General Trend: Harris's approval rating is increasing, and she is narrowing Trump's lead compared to previous polls involving Biden.

MY TAKE: Harris is expected to maintain strong poll numbers during and immediately after Thursday's Democratic National Convention, but what follows remains uncertain. She will first need to undergo a serious interview, an area where she has not consistently excelled, which could sway some voters. Then, on September 10, she will debate Trump on ABC News—a pivotal moment that could either bolster her lead or diminish it. However, the honeymoon period will eventually end. Trump's main challenge is the dwindling time, with mail-in ballots set to go out next month. Millions of voters will have cast their ballots well before November 5, 2024. If the polls are accurate, Trump needs to shift the dynamic now, not later. If the polls are off, the election could swing in either direction. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on voter turnout.