Trump's Legal Peril: Convicted on 34 Felony Counts, Faces Prison or Probation as 2024 Election Looms

For those reading me around the world, by now you might have learned that a jury in New York City found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 felony counts for falsifying business records to cover up an alleged affair with porn actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election cycle.

NOTE: The jurors were unanimous in their verdict, but the case was weak and politically motivated as previous campaigns or people accused of violating election finance laws were fined, not tried or convicted. It was meant to achieve not just a conviction but to embarrass and damage Trump ahead of the 2024 presidential election on November 5. The case was so weak that I had predicted in many posts that Trump would be acquitted. Trump has, therefore, become the first former American President to be charged with a crime, tried, and convicted.

NOTE: Trump faces four years in prison or probation. New York Judge Juan Merchan will announce sentencing on July 11, just a few days before Trump is to accept the Republican Party presidential nomination and two weeks after his first presidential debate with President Biden in Atlanta on June 27.

NOTE: It's unclear whether Judge Merchan will send Trump to prison while he's campaigning to become President, especially with his status as a former American President. What is likely to happen is probation.

NOTE: Under New York law, probation for felony convictions can last for different lengths of time depending on the class of the felony. For a Class E felony, which falsifying business records can be, probation can last up to five years.

NOTE: Individuals on probation must adhere to specific conditions set by the court. These conditions can include regular meetings with a probation officer, maintaining employment, undergoing drug testing, attending counseling sessions, and refraining from committing any new crimes.

NOTE: If a person violates the terms of their probation, they can be subject to additional penalties, including the possibility of being sent to prison.

NOTE: Probation can be supervised or unsupervised. Supervised probation involves regular check-ins with a probation officer, while unsupervised probation does not require such check-ins but still mandates compliance with the court’s conditions.

NOTE: Trump has said that he would appeal the verdict, but the appeal court takes several months to hear cases, and Trump's appeal might take place by May or June next year when the case might be overturned or upheld.

NOTE: However, as serious as what I just detailed above is, that's Trump's least problem moving ahead. The main case for Trump is the Supreme Court's decision on presidential immunity, which could come any time from now.

NOTE: If the Supreme Court grants Trump absolute presidential immunity, that would make a U.S. president a king and protect not just Trump but also Biden and all former and future American Presidents for all their actions while in office. That decision will, in a way, almost automatically end all other cases against Trump, assuring that he can still run for President with minimal damage.

NOTE: If the Court does not grant Trump absolute immunity, it will be hell as the cases in DC, Georgia, and possibly Florida will proceed quickly, ensuring that Trump spends almost every other week in court and potentially be convicted on all of them.

NOTE: While Trump has been receiving a donation boost since before and after his conviction, other Republican candidates down the ballot are not receiving much support. Many of them might win due to Trump's popularity, and they might also lose if his popularity wanes and if they have no money to campaign at the local levels where elections are won.

NOTE: Removing Trump from the ticket will almost mean the Republican Party has already lost the next election, as many down-the-ballot candidates will not be able to win without Trump.

NOTE: If Trump wins the presidential election, he will become only the second American President to come back and win a non-consecutive term of four years. He will not be able to run for another term. Cases against him will certainly just fall apart.

NOTE: If Trump loses, the Republican Party will certainly blame him, and his allies will suffer defeat and expulsion across the country. The Republican Party will take four to eight years to rebuild. The MAGA movement might likely evaporate as it will be attacked from all sides, and populism will be blamed.

NOTE: As you can see, no one can predict with certainty what is about to happen. Maybe Trump, Biden, and RFK will not run, and maybe one of them will not. I don't know, and no one knows for now. But we are entering a tumultuous time in the United States of America.

NOTE: Finally, it's unclear if any of the current candidates can solve America's greatest problem for now, which is not immigration or the economy, but unity. America is so divided now that everyone retreats to their echo chamber. No one talks to the other side. Moderate candidates are being crushed, and people who try to be balanced are being attacked and bullied by anonymous people with small online accounts.

NOTE: I acknowledge that I may be wrong about everything I've just presented, as I have been wrong many times before, including today. However, this is the best insight I can provide based on what I know as of June 2, 2024, at 3:08 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. May God help us.